Cave 76 Episode Three: Mega-Sized Oscar Special

Episode 3: Is He the Chumba or the Wumba?

The Cave 76 Podcast

It's our biggest episode yet clocking in at over an hour and a half of Oscar-y goodness. Perfect for long road trips or an exhausting work out. This episode brings out the Oscar fever part of the Sickness and venerable co-host Frank.

It's a long episode but I think it's also our best one yet. The organization of episode 2, but with the easy back and forth of episode 1. I will be back later to update the time signature break down of the episode. Until then enjoy.

Much thanks to Frank for editing this monstrosity so quickly.

The Nominations Conisdered AGAIN

We come once again to the time of yelps for joy and nerdy hand-wringing-Oscar Nominations. Below you will find a list of the nominees and below each individual list my thoughts on who belongs, who doesn't and who was snubbed. Just a quick FYI I took out Documentary short subject as well as the shorts category as I've seen none of the films nominated and can't really speak with any authority on them. All due respect to the people who put the care and effort into these films but well, there just aren't a lot of opportunities to watch them. Hopefully digital media should change this soon. Anyone curious about my thoughts on the other categories please feel free to ask in the comments.

Best Picture
Avatar: James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
The Blind Side: Nominees to be determined
District 9: Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
An Education: Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
The Hurt Locker: Nominees to be determined
Inglourious Basterds: Lawrence Bender, Producer
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
A Serious Man: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
Up: Jonas Rivera, Producer
Up in the Air: Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, and Jason Reitman, Producers

Thoughts: Avatar's nomination was inevitable and it's definitely the sort of popular, attention grabbing film that the population can get behind and thus have a stake in the Oscars and boost ratings. That being said, its presence negates the need for the Blindside. Even the film's strongest supporters couldn't contend there are more deserving films that have been shunted aside for its spot. Unless of course those supporters are the sort that only see two or three movies a year (which indeed may be the case with many Blindside fans). It's very cool to see Up in the category since it further legitimizes animation as a method of storytelling instead of a separate genre to the mainstream. I'm pleased and surprised to see An Education in here but I don't have any expectations it will win. Congrats to District 9 too who wins just by being nominated. Precious was always going to be here but its subject matter may be too distressing for older (and let's face it, white) voters.

Will Win:I still put my money on Up in the Air for being topical and appealing to the highest number of voters. Still I'd love to be wrong and have it be Hurt Locker (Bigelow's DGA win is a handy indicator that UITA may be upset).

Should Win:Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds are both films people will be talking about LONG after 2009. The craft behind them is too strong to not make them indelible. A Serious Man is simply too dense and polarizing to connect with viewers but the more I think about the film the more I find to relish.

Snubbed: I will maintain for a long time that In the Loop was one of the best to come out this year (certainly the funniest). I had high hopes for the thuoghtful, somber Where the Wild Things Are but I can understand voters not getting it. Surprised to see Crazy Heart represented in other categories but not here. Same goes for the Messenger.

Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

Thoughts: This was a pretty predictable bracket with the exception of (deserving) wild-card Renner. I'm actually pleased to Freeman in here as he really nails Mandela. Clooney as it his Clooney-ist is UITA and does nice work with it but it doesn't feel very stretchy. He shows himself to be vulnerable, sure, but it doesn't feel brave. The real contest is Bridges and Firth. Bridges perf feels very lived-in while Firth is a revelation. Neither man's work is overtly showy which is a nice change of pace but both are honest and exciting.

Will Win: Bridges will likely ride on the traction of his previous wins. Plus he gets the nod for representing a career's worth of great work.

Should Win: That being said Firth's work made me (and doubtless many other viewers) completely re-evaluate what the man is capable of.

Snubbed: Michael Stuhlbarg's wonderful, desperate work in A Serious Man is missing. Also, if you want to go quirky Matt Damon's very funny, very different sort work in The Informant! is woefully absent. Frankly i found Tobey Maguire's work in brothers to be powerful, unpredictable stuff. The actor showed depths I hadn't previously seen and as his character's psychosis grew I genuinely feared him. I didn't believe him as a baddie in the Good German but he sure as hell is believable in this. Sam Rockwell has his supporters for his intense work in Moon but the Oscars almost never reward genre performances.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Matt Damon in Invictus
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Thoughts: This has always been Waltz's to lose. He won't. Boy will I be ticked if he does lose. Also Damon in Invictus is so damn inconsequential, what they're really doing is rewarding his physical transformation from The Informant! to soccer star.

Will Win: Waltz.

Should Win: That's a BINGO!

Snubbed: Frankly I would switch out Tucci in Lovely bones and replace him with Tucci in Julie & Julia. Wouldn't mind seeing some love for Christian McKay in Me & Orson Welles. Oh also Peter Capaldi and James Gandolfini deserve nods for their work in In the Loop.

Actress in a Leading Role
Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Carey Mulligan in An Education
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Thoughts: I know what's going to happen here. I know what's going to happen and I don't like it one bit. Sidibe is too young and I can't see her career extending past the film (though you could say the same for Jennifer Hudson, who basically won an award for singing a song well). Mirren doesn't have the traction she had with Queen, Last Station is too unknown. People love Streep (and it's certainly jusitified for her work here), but the movie may be too light for it to be a contender.

Will Win: That leaves Bullock for playing a sassy-brassy Texas mom who just can't help but be wonderful and help the under-privileged. I'm glad that Bullock is trying to push herself dramatically but come on. This is not the best female performance of the year.

Should Win: From this list it's Mulligan who gives a real, lived in performance. Oh wel,, I see a very long career ahead for this girl and the traction from the nomination should only help her career.

Snubbed: AGH! Where is Tilda Swinton whogave one of the years best performances in Julia? What's especially damning is that the role is so different from the ice queens (both literal and figurative) that Swinton normally play. Abbie Cornish's delightful work in Bright Star (a movie that's generally been ignored this award season) is also deserving.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Penélope Cruz in Nine
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Mo’Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Thoughts: Pretty much the bracket we've seen all season with the exception of Cruz. I can't begin to fathom what she's doing here. She sings fine, but if you had to pick someone from Nine it should have been Cotillard (again if you HAD to pick someone from Nine). Kendrick has a whole career ahead of her so we'll see her again. Gyllenhaal is great but there is nothing that feels unique in the part that suggests that only she could play it.

Will Win: Mo'Nique. It's a big, powerful performance from someone who has been in the industry for a while but has never pushed herself dramatically on this kind of platform. It feels like a "brave" vote for voters.

Should Win: Farmiga does subtle work in UITA and does what no woman with the exception of JLo has done in a film. That is, have genuine charisma with Clooney. She's that rarity in film; a career driven woman who really does have it all and plays it convincingly.

Snubbed: Melanie Laurent's Shoshana from Basterds goes from victim to angry wrath of God and the movie is richer for it. The role is a wonderful showcase for the actress and a fascinating character. Samantha Morton's work in The Messenger is nuanced, moving stuff. She does a lot with not a lot of screen-time. Rachel Weisz also brings heretofore unseen comic chops in Brothers Bloom and kind of makes fans re-evaluate her.

Animated Feature Film
Coraline: Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox: Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog: John Musker and Ron Clements
The Secret of Kells: Tomm Moore
Up: Pete Docter

Thoughts: Most years this is Pixar and whatever animated movie came out that yar. This year, however, I'm pleased to say this is a legitimately solid field. Except of course for Secret of Kells which apparently was only released to voters and came with copious bjs and hjs. I'm sorry if Oscar nomination morning Roger Ebert tweets he's never heard of your film there is something MIGHTY fishy going on. Kels aside, I thoroughly enjoyed all of these films and what's more they all feel different. Great year for animation.

Will Win: Up. Because despite all the competition Up still has got it.

Should Win: Up.

Snubbed: Such a rich year that three better known films could just as easily takes Kels spot. First, there's the much better than you'd think Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs. Don't let the advertising fool you, this was maybe the movie that made me laugh third-most of any movie I saw this year (behind In the Loop and Zombieland). I've heard wonderful things about a Town Called Panic (though it never played near me) and the same goes for Miyazaki's Ponyo.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
District 9: Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education: Screenplay by Nick Hornby
In the Loop: Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire: Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air: Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Thoughts: Yay, finally a nod to the brilliant In the Loop. I'm a bit baffled that having a pre-existing character in your film suddenly shuts you out from an original screenplay nom, but there you go. Similarly District 9 being based on Blomkamp's short-film feels pretty weak to render it adapted. These were big, exciting ORIGINAL ideas people. Anyway it's Reitman's to lose as he's been cleaning up all over the place for this one.

Will Win: Reitman and Turner (doubt Turner will be at the awards).

Should Win: I'd love to see the In the Loop guys take it. I'm sure the speech would be wonderful and if the fun and good reviews didn't encourage them to make another movie maybe the award would. Also wouldn't mind hearing Nick Hornby's speech. Always awesome.

Snubbed: Where the Wild Things Are, no doubt a challenge to adapt but I think they perfectly captured the tone of the thing. Crazy Heart is apparently based on a novel and it's script is pretty tight despite the hangdog aesthetics that abound in the film.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Hurt Locker: Written by Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds: Written by Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger: Written by Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman
A Serious Man: Written by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Up: Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter; Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, and Tom McCarthy

Thoughts: Great line-up. No complaints here. Thank goodness Avatar wasn't nominated. Even the film's most ardent defenders couldn't possibly champion the script.

Will Win: This would probably be a sure thing for Hurt Locker...

Should Win: ...but oh man it would be so cool to see Quentin get the nod for his talky, extremely unconventional WWII film.

Snubbed: You could make an argument for (500) Days of Summer...if you've never seen Annie Hall.

Directing
Avatar: James Cameron
The Hurt Locker: Kathryn Bigelow
Inglourious Basterds: Quentin Tarantino
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: Lee Daniels
Up in the Air: Jason Reitman

Thoughts: Precious is known far more for its performances than its direction (though OBVIOUSLY the two are intertwined). Frankly Reitman's been a bit of a snotty shit on the campaign trail and lord knows Cameron doesn't need the ego boost. That really brings it down to two.

Will Win: Bigelow has been churning out quality action films for nearly three decades. She has mastered her craft and creates taut films. Throw in the weight and timeliness of the Iraq war and the Hurt Locker looks like a lock. Plus the Oscars are long overdue to reward a female director (especially one who deserves it).

Should Win: Bigelow, though Tarantino brings equal portions manic energy and grace to Basterds so I wouldn't mind it if he upsets.

Snubbed: Spike Jonze does a pretty remarkable job with Wild Things, both in terms of technical work and performances. The Coens do career best work in A Serious Man but the work was likely too personal and inaccessible for many.

A fun albiet predictable evening

Hey everyone, hope you all enjoyed the Oscars. I know I did. Hmm, what could've helped that?
Oh, also this.

Seems like everyone I was with had a fun night. In a year where the academy was unusually savvy in its choice for nominees, as usual early hyperbole brought the fix-in way too early. Blame for this certainly can fall on interminable post-festival buzz for films like No Country and La Vie En Rose. How can anyone else be a winner when certain films and people have had the phrase "Oscar winner" bandied about beside their name for months? I will say the Jon Stewart seemed relaxed despite a crunched prep-time. He was fun and off-the -cuff and while others may criticize him for being reined in there was a still a lot of strike-fueled bad blood in the room and overly edgy material would not have helped it. Still I felt the evening breezed by considering there were only really two brief "wtf" type montages as opposed to four or five. It was ALMOST interesting seeing how Oscar nominations get done and it's nice to see Oscar moments. I'm sure for non-cinephiles it was dull as dishwater to see the prior nominees bits before each of the "big six" but if you're one of us it's intriguing to see how trends have evolved in Hollywood (and to show off the best and worst choices for that matter).

Ok quick personal favorite moments and superlatives from the evening:
Best line of the opening monologue: In regards to Norbit's make-up nomination "Too often, the Academy ignores movies that aren't good."
Runner-up: On the Democratic front-runners "Usually when you see a black or woman president, an asteroid's about to hit The Statue Of Liberty." Which led to the nights most amusing audience reaction shot; tickled pink (metaphorically) Wesley Snipes and Spike Lee.
Bit that failed at show but killed at the party I was at: Jon Stewart and the girl from the August Rush musical number playing wii tennis.
Best presenters: Josh Brolin and James McAvoy make a lame bit work (reciting classic film lines) through sheer force of personality and Brolin's terrible Nicholson impression. Both were so psyched to be there (and will hopefully show up again in the future). Didn't hurt that they were easy on the eyes. Or McAvoy's adorable little skip as he walked on.
Runner-up: "Not Dame Judi Dench and Halle Berry" Jonah Hill and Seth Rogen. Also quoth the girlfriend "And I know that Seth...Seth Rogen can never figure out if he's the fat guy...the hot guy in Knocked Up or the other guy...or the other guy the one from Juno. I know the fat guy and the other one from Knocked Up presented." A follow-up phone call revealed that yes, my gf think Seth Rogen is sexy and was not in fact talking about Paul Rudd. Yes I am the luckiest man ever.
Worst presenter: Cameron Diaz, you should probably be able to pronounce the title of your category as a prerequisite to presenting. Also she's kind of irrelevant as her face has not appeared in a film since 2006.
Runner-up: Miley Cyrus, why do you exist? No children are watching these Oscars and your presence isn't changing anyone's mind.

Best entrance: Verbatim line from party "Hey wouldn't it be amazing if Travolta were one of the dancers?" Ask and ye shall receive Pat Oscar party. Truly awful Travolta (registered trademark pending) impressions and cheers followed.
The Steven Spielberg appreciation society: Amy Adams (who smiled enormously and genuinely when the themes for Jaws and Close Encounters played) and The Rock (Apparently little 8 year old Dwayne thought the face melting in Raiders "was very real").

Best reaction shot: Seeing Cate watch her clip for Elizabeth 2 and then made a face that looked like someone had just shown a clip from a terrible high-school play. See even she knows that movie had no business being nominated.

Best musical performance: I've got to give it up for Once's Glenn Hansard and Marketa Irglova who nailed "Falling Slowly" and hopefully got some more eyes on their fantastic movie (now on DVD). It was very cool to see Glenn playing THAT guitar and whenever he peaked over at Marketa it was perfect.


Runner-up: Amy Adams goes it alone and does an awesome "Happy Working Song." A rough position to be in since the number is greatly benefited by context so I'm sure she felt kind of silly just being up there without gross animal helpers. Meanwhile Kristen Chennowth nails "That's How You Know" to the surprise of no-one (though I think she extended her phrases an awful lot). Quoth the girlfriend "I saw some of the Oscars when I was working out. I know that um I think it was the girl from Wicked, Glinda, did 'That's How You Know.' She was wearing a super weird dress that did not fit her."
Classiest moment: Jon Stewart, following Marketa Irglova being cut-off before getting one word in brings her back on stage for her entire speech, which was pretty great. It's reasons like this that Stewart should be invited back again and again. That and his post modest and earnest Glenn Hansard speech moment of saying "That guy is so arrogant."
Runner-up: Daniel Day-Lewis bows to Helen Mirren. Who then dubs him with the Oscar. Fitting, symbolic, memorable.
Second Runner-Up: Art Director Robert Boyle's honorary Oscar presentation and speech. When you're Hitch's, Jewison's and Siegel's set-designer you've earned it.

Biggest surprise: Tilda Swinton for best supporting actress. I certainly didn't mind it, but no one expected it. Quoth the girlfriend "I think a redehead won for supporting actress and she gave a real good speech which is hard to do. Plus she's very interesting looking."
Runner-up: The Bourne Ultimatum mini-sweep. Good movie to be sure, but come on.

Biggest non-surprise fun anyway: Javier Bardem's win, followed by a sweet and brief speech. He's about to become super-duper famous. Quoth someone at my party (I think it was Katie, could be wrong): "He's the Spanish Clive Owen." Too true.


Fashion Faux-pas: Gracious winner and screenwriter Diablo Cody. Way to not remind everyone of the old gig Ms. Busey. Quoth Frank "This is the first time I've seen someone cry the amount in proportion to how high their slit is."
Fashion Faux-pas: Daniel Day-Lewis rocking not one, BUT TWO earrings. Wait, whats that? DDL can wear any damn thing he pleases? I guess you're right internal monologue.

Biggest death montage snubs: Brad Renfro, Robert Goulet. GOULET!

So bizarre it bears mentioning: Jack Nicholson during his best picture montage presentation , "Each of these film touches the humanity ha-ha-ha inside us." Was he laughing at the whole "touching inside us" thing? What is he, Michael Scott?
Most Coen-esque moment: During their accepting best director Joel says what everyone was thinking "I don't have a lot to add from the last time I was up here. So thank you."

A special message from Daniel Plainview

Ladies and Gentlemen, I’ve traveled over half our state to get here this evening. I couldn’t get away sooner because my new well was coming in at Coyote Hills and I had to see about it. That well is now flowing at two thousand barrels and it’s paying me an income of five thousand dollars a week. I have two others drilling and I have sixteen producing at Antelope.
So - Ladies and Gentlemen - if I say I’m an oil, man you will agree. Tonight, your usual "blogger" is watching an awards ceremony, known as the Oscars. Now I knew a man named Oscar, bald as a piker he was. But not made of gold. It's three hours of finery and not plainspoken folk like myself. Just a bunch of thick dandies who don't know about my business. Still it IS a competition and I do have a competition in me. I've been told by our host that he'll be back tomorrow with a review of the ceremony, of something called Be Kind Rewind, maybe even some photographs.
So tonight, my son and my partner, H.W. Plainview will abide this here blog. But please no comments. I don't like...people.

Be Kind, Re-Link

Oscars so close I can smell them. Here are some ways to fill the time until then.

Interviews:
OMAR'S COMIN'! If you live in Baltimore and are on my favorite TV show ever, The Wire, there are no two scarier words. But you dear reader can enjoy the actor who plays Omar, Michael K. Williams, from the safety of your computer right here.
It wouldn't be a Sickness Cinema link roundup without Amy Adams. Here is a kick-ass interview with the Advocate. Surprise, surprise, she was bugging Idina Menzel to sing during the entire shoot, awesome.

Analysis:
Samuraifrog has a thoughtful piece on the sexual undertones (and overtones) in QT's Death Proof right here.
Speaking of Grindhouse, the Deuce has you covered with their list of the 20 greatest grindhouse films of all-time here.
Matt Seitz has a very thoughtful piece on No Country here, even if I continue to wrestle with the film, it still bares reading about. (thanks to Etan for the link)
The New Yorker has an intriguing piece on the Coen's if that last article still leaves you hungry here.

Lists:
The most overrated movies of all time according to AC here. I find myself doing more agreeing than disagreeing.
Entertainment Weekly takes a look at the 100 worst Oscar snubs of all-time here. Don't worry, Miss Adams, you're in good company.
A little late for Valentine's Day but here are five great screen-worthy declarations of love.


And I leave you with this: Behold a talented kid who in mere minutes proves to be more entertaining than the entirety of Across the Universe.

Sicks Osc Pix

Ok, so I went away and didn't tell anyone. It's bad I know but there was apartment non-blog related work to be done and darn it if it didn't get done. Yes I realized I missed a link roundup and a Monday Night Monologue but I think we'll all survive. But anyway the day we've all (yes I'm being generous) been waiting for is here, Oscar nommmmms. While Nate over at filmexperience and many of his fellow bloggers are deep into prognosticating these things I think it's ultimately a futile exercise because ultimately the really winners are movies that stick in your head for all time. After all some of the greatest movies of all time don't have a single Oscar to their name, meanwhile who has one nice thing to say about The Greatest Show on Earth or the incredibly white bread Chariots of Fire? Not nobody, that's who. Here is a run down of the nominees with my thoughts on deserved-ness, who will win and who got screwed.

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille
Persepolis
Surf's Up
Deserves to Win: Frankly either Ratatouille or Persepolis are more than deserving winners.
Will Win: I think voters will ultimately opt for the English speaking Ratatouille.
Screwed: Rest assured those surfing penguins will get a mighty skewering next season the Simpsons. It's just not fair.
General notes: Seriously, why isn't Simpsons on here.

Best Foreign Language Film
Beaufort (Israel)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
12 (Russia)
The Counterfeitters (Austria)
Katyn (Poland)
Deserved Win: I don't know, none of the foreign film I saw this year showed up on this list
Will Win: The most despondent film should win so...Beaufort
Screwed: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days and Diving Bell
General notes: Yet another bracket that illuminates why academy standards must be revised.

Best Writing: Adapted Screenplay
Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Christopher Hampton - Atonement
Sarah Polley - Away from Her
Deserved Win: Anderson's adaptation of Sinclair's Oil! renders the material incredibly cinematic.
Will Win: A lot of earlier awards have been handed over to No Country, don't see why that won't be the case here.
Screwed: Into the Wild's tender adaptation got left in the van.

Best Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody - Juno
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Tamra Jenkins - The Savages
Brad Bird - Ratatouille
Nancy Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl
Deserved Win: Cody is an exciting new voice in film and damn the backlash.
Will Win: They tend to give it to new voices (Quentin and Kaufman have one-natch) so why not get a super smart and savvy lady up on the stage.
Screwed: Judd Apatow and Seth Rogen, would've been very cool to see either guy up there for Knocked Up or Superbad. Same goes for Edgar Wright's Hot Fuzz but come on, that wasn't getting nominated.
General notes; A pretty good line-up this year and my not having seen Lars and the Real Girl I can't genuinely bitch about it.

Best Director
Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Deserved Win: Anderson. Period.
Will Win: It's finally the Coens year, assuming we don't get a globes repeat for the solid work of Julian Schnabel.
Screwed: Tim Burton did some of the best directing of his life in Sweeney Todd. David Fincher got boned by Zodiac's early release. Sean Penn for Into the Wild who gave the film immense heart in spite of the warts-and-all lead character.
General notes: Another very deserving bunch.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Deserved Win: Ryan or Swinton would make for lovely, deserved winners and the award would do a lot for their careers.
Will Win: But because everyone is lazy it'll go to Cate Blanchett's fun Dylan imitation.
Screwed:
General notes: What is Ruby Dee doing here. She's in the movie for like three minutes and made no impression whatsoever. Could be Garner's spot. Oh wait, Dee has never been nominated before...well...I guess...

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Deserved Win: Holbrook is a killer.
Will Win: But Bardem did it with a giant compressed air gun.
Screwed: Paul Dano and Max von Sydow for their powerful performances in There Will Be Blood and Diving Bell respectively. Also I know there would be no chance but I would love to hear James Marsden's name read for Enchanted.
General notes: If I had to pick a second winner it would be Wilkinson who perfectly balanced crazy and sane in Clayton.

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Julie Christie - Away from Her
Ellen Page - Juno
Laura Linney - The Savages
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Deserved Win: Christie has the chops, the experience and the grace to make a great winner.
Will Win: I'm thinking Christie as the other nominees have years worth of great performances left in them.
Screwed: Amy Adams, AMY ADAMS and AMY ADAMS! Also Helen Bonham Carter.
General notes: Frankly I kind of hope Page doesn't win as young Oscar winners tend to bottom out early. Anna Paquin has been doing straight to DVD movies lately for goodness sake. Cate Blanchett's nomination for a movie that no one liked is pure laziness. If Cotillard wins I will throw something at the TV.

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Deserved Win: I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!
Will Win: Milkshake?
Screwed: Milkshaaaaaaake!
General notes: I'm thirsty. In all seriousness it's incredibly cool that Viggo got nominated but he sure as hell ain't winning.

Best Picture
No Country for Old Men There Will Be Blood Juno Michael Clayton Atonement
Deserved Win: There Will Be Blood IS the best picture
Will Win: But it wasn't as accessible as No Country
Screwed: Zodiac, Into the Wild, Ratatouille, Once, I'm Not There
General notes: Comedies don't win so that cuts Juno, there is an hour of best picture in Atonement and then another hour, Michael Clayton may be too small for the win.

Oh and Enchanted got nominated for three of the song categories and Once got one too. WOOO! Please, oh please let there be a broadcast.